wagering systems are rigorous wagering strategies designed to overcome the house advantage in a variety of casino games. The objective of wagering systems is to select and size wagers so as to defeat the casino at its own game. Over the years, hundreds of wagering systems have been devised, but they all have one trait in common:
Betting systems are ineffective.
If I had to speculate, I would say that you have likely heard this before. In fact, I would be willing to assume that even most of the people who do attempt wagering systems or who pay money for “secret” betting systems have heard that before too. However, they continue to fell for the same old hollow promises.
Because of the way the human mind is constructed, we are all susceptible to the grand claims made by wagering systems. Initially, the explanations of many wagering systems sound plausible. For instance, the Martingale wagering system is among the most deceptive.
The Martingale wagering system is straightforward: if you fail, you double your wager. Continue doing so until you prevail. A simple flight of logic leads us to conclude that if you use the Martingale system, you will never end the day with a loss. Unfortunately, this is not how it works in practice.
Betting Methods Exposed
The issue with wagering systems is that they have no effect on the inherent house advantage that exists in all casino games. In the long term, the rules of every casino game are designed to give the establishment a minor advantage. The house advantage is not particularly large, but it is sufficient for the casino to make a modest profit each year.
The house advantage cannot be altered by betting systems. In addition, wagering systems cannot capitalize on “lucky streaks” to increase your winnings when lady fate is on your side. After the fact, speculators create the concept of lucky sequences.
This belief in fortunate sequences exemplifies the “gambler’s fallacy.” The gambler’s fallacy is the misconception that past events have some bearing on the future. For example, if a player has won his last three wagers in a succession, he may believe he is on a fortunate streak. Therefore, his wagering system may advise him to increase the size of his wagers if he’s on a winning streak.
In reality, each event in a casino game is entirely random and independent. It does not matter how many times you have won or lost in the last twenty minutes, nor does it matter if the roulette ball has landed on black for the last five consecutive turns. The next outcome will continue to be entirely arbitrary.
Gambler’s Fallacy Illustration
The coin-flip example exemplifies the gambler’s fallacy most plainly. Imagine you and a companion are flipping a coin and placing a wager on the outcome. Now suppose that the coin has landed on its head ten times consecutively. Many people believe that the coin is “due” to land on its tails at some point. They may even believe that the coin has a marginally greater chance of landing on its tail than on its head.
In reality, the coin is equally likely to fall on heads or tails regardless of past outcomes. Even if a hundred trials in a succession have resulted in heads, the next turn still has a 50/50 chance.
In reality, you would likely request a new coin or have someone else turn the coin. But hopefully this illustration illustrates my thesis. In a highly regulated casino environment, you can be certain that the games are equitable. Whatever you observe in the immediate term has zero bearing on the outcome of your next wager.